How to bet MLB and win at baseball. Get your MLB betting questions in and the boys will answer and help you get better at betting baseball LIVE. The favored team is signified with the negative symbol and the underdog with the positive symbol. The line above means that the Astros need to win the game by more than 1.5 runs. However, a run line bet on the Nationals will payout if the team loses by less than +1.5 runs. So, a bet on the underdog wins even if the team doesn’t win.

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Previously we discussed how you have to win over 52% of your bets if you are betting straight bets (point spread bets). This is because you have to overcome the 10% house edge when betting $110 to win $100.

This is not the case when betting a moneyline if you can figure out a way to win with underdogs. Well, you're in luck. There is a proven way to win MLB games betting underdogs and all you have to do is find the games that qualify and make the bets.

The History

Underdogs in baseball only win almost 44% of the time. From the outside looking in, that doesn't look so good. Especially when compared to having a hard time winning the needed 52%+ on straight bets in a sport like NFL football. That's where the moneyline comes in. With a moneyline bet the underdog doesn't have to win 52%. It doesn't even have to win 50% because you'll be getting positive odds instead of negative ones.

If underdogs win 44% of the time and you were to bet every game at an average of +130, you'd only make a very small profit. That would be 4 wins at +130 and 5 losses at -100 for each 9 games bet, or $520 in wins and $500 in losses. A $20 profit with $1,170 risked. And that's if you could get every game at +130 or have them all average out to be +130, which you can't. There's too many games where underdogs are less than +130.

But what if you could narrow down that group a little more into a sub group that wins at a higher than 44% or 4 out of 9 rate? Now you could start making some decent money.

Narrowing Down the Group

When a team is an underdog, they are obviously supposed to lose. But many teams are closely matched and one team could be just a slight underdog, while others are facing a real uphill battle playing a team or a pitcher that isn't likely to lose. You'll get big odds on that game, but it's not likely the underdog will win.

Also, in a long season, teams have good runs and bad runs. It's the nature of a 162 game year. A star player could be injured, the bullpen could be overworked during a stretch, the team could be coming off a long stretch of games with very few off days. Streaks are real in the MLB and you don't want to get caught going against them.

And, another thing that is pretty consistent in MLB is that really good pitchers win and win often. The chances of beating a 7-1 pitcher are far, far less than beating a 2-6 pitcher. Betting against the top pitchers in the game is a really bad idea.

Finding Which Games to Bet On

Above we decided that big underdogs are not a great bet. So we are going to remove all underdogs at +150 or higher. Never bet them. It's just too risky and they don't win often enough.

To avoid betting against hot teams and on cold teams, remove any game where the underdog has lost more than 2 games in a row or the favorite has won more than 2 games in a row. A 3 game streak is not a guarantee that it will continue that way, but it's a start and we want to avoid it.

And finally, stay away from betting on the top notch pitchers in the league. If the team you are betting on had one, they wouldn't be the underdog. Top pitchers are almost never the underdog. Remove all games that include a top 13 pitcher in each league. Top ranked pitchers can be found at lots of different websites, but you don't want to just rely on ERA or Wins and Losses. The USA Today website has a great ranking system, including an example of the final 2016 ranking in the National League. You can use their drop down boxes to review previous years and American League pitchers.

As a side note, watch for pitchers that were injured and have come back and are back in great form. They may not make the top 13 because of their total wins or innings pitched. This is kind of a manual review, but you can look for pitchers with very low ERA's or very high winning percentages that missed a fair amount of starts. Avoid these pitchers as well.

How To Bet On Baseball And Win Tonight

If you follow these guidelines you should find a handful of games every day on the major-league schedule, with the exception of traditional travel days where there are less games, like Mondays.

Shop multiple sports books if you can. One sports book might have an underdog at +115, while another might have the same underdog at +120. You obviously would prefer the +120.

Never risk more than 1% - 2.5% of your total bankroll on an individual game. You have to have enough to cover a short bad run. You only have to win about 47% of your bets with this system. Almost 44% will come naturally just betting underdogs, so you only have to make a little more that 3%.

Always bet the same amount on each game. Don't increase your bet because you lost your last one. Don't decrease your bet because it's cloudy at the game. If you have a $2,000 bankroll for the season and you are choosing to bet 2% per game, then bet $40 on every game you bet. If you have a $5,000 bankroll for the season, then it's $100 on every game. Do not deviate from your chosen amount during the year.

Baseball is one of the most fun sports to watch and bet on. However, it’s always more fun when you know how to bet on baseball so that you win more than you lose.

Like you, I’m a big fan of MLB, and I’m also a super experienced sports bettor who’s always looking for profitable opportunities in the baseball betting market. I’ve put together this guide on betting on baseball to help you turn the kind of profits I make regularly. Why? Because I hate bookmakers!

This article will introduce you to some of the best baseball betting sites in terms of odds, bonuses, and usability. I’ll also walk you through some of the best baseball betting strategies that I use.

Ready to make some money? Let’s go!

Best Baseball Betting Sites

Bovada is the standout choice when it comes to live MLB gambling. It updates its odds as soon as there is a potentially game-changing incident, its odds are very competitive, and it offers a huge amount of MLB betting lines for each game. Plus, Bovada keeps you informed with each game via up-to-the-minute statistics. These will help you place better bets.

Right now, it is offering a 50% welcome bonus to new players worth up to $250.

MyBookie is known for posting their lines super fast, and they’re also one of the best in the business when it comes to competitive odds. MyBookie ran some ace promotions throughout the MLB season, too. And if you’re betting on the move, the MyBookie mobile version is top-notch.

At the moment, there’s a 100% welcome bonus on the table for new players worth as much as $300.

If you’re new to betting on baseball, BetAmerica has a helpful section on their website where their experts give out free news and analysis. This helps you to make better, more informed betting decisions.

As well as that, BetAmerica is known for offering regular free bets to customers that can be used on the MLB, and their odds are good.

There’s a 100% matched deposit welcome bonus available to new players worth as much as $100.

Helpful Stats & Facts For Betting On Baseball

To improve your odds of winning on sports betting, it’s always helpful to fatten your overall knowledge up with some stats and facts. Baseball, in particular, is a numbers game. The more you know about the metrics, the more you’ll win.

Here are some of my favorite stats and facts for betting on baseball:

• The more times a player hits the ball into the air, the more home runs he’s gonna hit.
• In general, look out for teams that strike the ball into the air often. They are usually more offensively productive.
• The best batters to back are those with a low ground ball to fly ball ratio.
• A GB/FB ratio of under 1.00 is impressive – lookout for it as these batters will have good power numbers.
• Batters that prefer to hit ground balls will perform better against fly ball pitchers.
• Around 29% of MLB games since 2004 have been decided by just one run.

The Most Popular Types of Baseball Bets

One of the most exciting things about betting on baseball is that there are lots of different types of bets you can place. I’m not going to cover every single bet, but here are the most popular ones:

Money Line Bet

The money line bet is the least complex of all bets. There are no point spreads involved, and all you have to do is decide who you think will win the match outright – the favorite or the underdog. This means you can ignore the Major League Baseball spread altogether.

The money line for a favorite to win the game typically looks like this:

The money line for an underdog to win the game looks like this:

• +200

You’ll need rudimentary math skills to find the value bets, but it’s not that difficult. Essentially, if you place a $100 wager on an underdog that’s priced at -200, you will win $200.

Over/Under Bets

The over/under bet is popular in all the big sports. When it comes to baseball, it refers to the total runs scored in any one game.

For example, before a game begins, the sportsbook will set a total number of combined runs between both teams. This could be 6,7,8,9 or even more. It’s then up to you to decide if the final total will be higher or lower (over or under). It’s a fun bet that requires a bit of research on your part if you want to make a success of it.

First 5 Bet

The first 5 bet is another really simple baseball bet that’s easy to get the hang of. Essentially, you’re just betting on who you think will be leading after the first 5 innings of a match. To help you place a more informed first 5 bet, make sure to see who the starting pitchers are.

One of the reasons the first 5 bet is so attractive is that you’re not stressing out about late-inning pitch hitters or who’s in the bullpen. Instead, you just need to take a look at the starting pitchers, and make your decision from there.

Betting The Line

When you bet on the run line for a match, you’re essentially handing the other team 1.5 runs. Why would you make this bet? Basically, you’re confident enough that team A is going to win by numerous runs at a canter. So, you hand the other team 1.5 runs and make yourself a bigger profit.

Whilst the profits can be big, it’s important to refer back to the statistic I shared earlier that shows nearly 30% of MLB games since 2004 have been decided by just one run. It’s certainly something to bear in mind when considering the MLB betting line.

Futures

How To Bet On Baseball And Win Prizes

A futures bet is when you place a wager on something that will happen sometime in the future. For example, you might place a wager on the Yankees to win the World Series in 2021.

Whilst futures are popular bets, and they also mean that your money is going to be tied up for a large amount of time. On the plus side, if it looks as though your futures bet is coming in, the sportsbook sometimes offers to pay out early (albeit at a smaller profit than if you held on until the end).

MLB Betting Strategy

Now that you understand a bit more about the types of baseball bets you can place let’s take a closer look at two excellent MLB betting strategies that I’ve personally used. Please note that, while these strategies have yielded solid profits for me and many other sports bettors, past results do not dictate what will happen next.

The First Five Innings Line

I covered the First 5 bet just a little earlier in this article. It’s a type of bet – but it’s also a strategy that can prove very fruitful if you get it right.

Essentially, with this MLB betting strategy, you’re betting on a team to be leading after the first five innings. That’s it. But why would you do this? And how’s it possible to make it consistently profitable?

I can respond to both questions with the same amount: Take a look at the starting pitchers. If you can see that Team A is starting with stronger pitchers than Team B, it makes sense to lump your money on Team A to be leading after the first five innings.

Also, take a look at form and statistics. How often does a team lead after the first 5 innings? What you want to look for are teams that start strongly. These are teams to back using these strategies.

Bet On The Homecoming Team

MLB is a long, long season, and teams play a huge amount of games. But what’s also worth noting is that teams play a LOT of games on the road. Sometimes, they’re away from home for a very long time. This can have an adverse effect on a team. By the end of their away stretch, they’re desperate to get home to see their families again.

For us bettors, they’re also desperate to play in front of their home crowd again, knowing that after the game, they can return to their wife and kids.

See, the records back us up on this. Traditionally, when a team returns after a long road trip, they kill it at home. Don’t get me wrong; they don’t always win. But backing the home team after a lengthy road trip is a solid strategy that can pay off. With that in mind, you should still study the form closely and check for variables, such as injuries and suspensions. But generally, this is a good MLB betting strategy.

Top Tips For Betting On Baseball

Having a strategy in place is one thing. But let’s supplement that strategy with some helpful tips and tricks for betting on baseball.

Starting Pitching Matters

I’ve mentioned starting pitchers a few times in this article – and for a good reason. Starting pitching matters. A lot. Starters might not throw as many innings as they did in the previous decades, but they still throw more innings than the bullpen.

How To Bet On Mlb Baseball And Win

Don’t Force It

The beauty of the MBL for sports bettors is that each team plays 162 games per year. That’s insane. It also means that you shouldn’t place a bet simply for the sake of placing a bet. If there’s no value to be had, don’t sweat it. Wait until the next game.

Evaluate Home and Away Teams

Yes, it’s a truism that home teams – in general – outperform away teams. But if you’re going to find any value, what matters more is that you know what the difference is by looking at the relevant splits. Take the time to crunch the data. Check the form, the stats, and find trends.

Focus On Defense

Offense sure is exciting. But defense is super valuable in an MLB game, and good MLB gamblers know this. In fact, I’d say that it’s usually defense that wins or loses a game.

When looking at the defense, consider the range of the players. Also, consider how each defensive player performs on the balls he reaches.

Best Way To Bet Baseball

Take a look at catchers, too – how much confidence they back the pitching staff, for example, as well as how they deal with an attempt at a stolen base.

Common Online Baseball Betting Tools

To aid your betting career, it’s a good idea to use online baseball betting tools. There are a few out there – here are some of my top recommendations:

• Fangraphs – Fangraphs is a quite incredible tool that’s essentially a comprehensive database stuffed with baseball stats. You can use the tool to learn how players perform against the left and right-handed pitchers, for example! New stats and articles are constantly being added each day, too
• StatCast – Another key tool to use when you bet on baseball, StatCast gives you access to previously inaccessible stats, such as how fast a fielder runs, what routes they take, and how hard a ball is hit. All these stats (and more) are useful whenever you’re putting a bet together
• BrooksBaseball – I’ll never tire of saying how important pitching is to betting on the MLB, and BrooksBaseball is the OG of pitching. Everything you could want to know about a pitcher is here. Armed with such knowledge, you can stay one step ahead of the bookmaker
• OddsPortal – I personally don’t think a sports bettor should ever go without an odds comparison tool. That’s exactly what OddsPortal is, and you can use it to find the best prices for the bets you want to place

Final Word On Baseball Betting

Knowing how to bet on baseball will give you a crucial edge over the bookmaker. I hope you’ve enjoyed my article, but the next step to getting better at sports betting is to choose a sportsbook that’s right for you. Then, grab the welcome bonus and use tools to help you place better, more informed baseball bets.

And don’t forget to leave a comment with your success stories!