After a two-week stint in Hawaii to open the 2021 PGA Tour schedule, competitive golf moves to PGA West in La Quinta, California, for The American Express. Below, we look at the 2021 American Express betting odds, and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.

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This week’s event sees several big names return to play but runs opposite the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which has drawn the majority of international stars and Justin Thomas.

Also see:

2021 American Express Fantasy Golf Power Rankings2021 American Express matchups, placings and group betting predictions

2021 American Express betting picks – Favorite

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:15 a.m. ET.

Abraham Ancer (+2500)

Ancer begins this week at No. 12 in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings, but he shares just the ninth-best odds to win The American Express. He missed the cut at last week’s Sony Open following a T-17 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, also in Hawaii.

Ancer has averaged 0.73 strokes gained on the field over 11 career rounds on PGA West’s Stadium Course, according to Data Golf. He finished alone in second in this event last year while ranking second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (3.32 per round) and SG: Putting (2.38 per round).

Betting Odds Calculator

The 29-year-old has never won on the PGA Tour, but he has a notable win on the Australasia circuit from 2018. His excellent ball-striking and short game play well at this venue. His two days off in Hawaii will also play to his advantage with a large portion of this field making the long trip back to the mainland Sunday night or Monday morning.

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2021 American Express betting picks – Contender

Adam Hadwin (+6600)

Hadwin is No. 1 in this field among those with four or more rounds played on the Stadium Course with 2.56 strokes gained on the field per round. The Canadian finished 2nd-T3-T2 in this event from 2017-19 but skipped last year’s tournament for the birth of his first child. In 2019, Hadwin was third among those who made the cut with 3.46 SG: Tee-to-Green and 2.95 SG: Approach per round.

He has slipped to No. 97 in the Golfweek rankings with his last win coming at the 2017 Valspar Championship, but he’s a clear fan of this venue and his betting odds don’t reflect his previous success.

2021 American Express betting picks – Long shot

William Gordon (+25000)

American Sports Betting Odds

Gordon has never played this event and missed the cut in each of his last three tournaments, including last week at the Sony Open. He’s well worth a shot at these odds, as his distance off the tee will play well at the 7,113-yard, par-72 Stadium Course, and the 7,152-yard, par-72 Nicklaus Tournament Course.

He has a career-best T-3 finish against a stronger field at last year’s Travelers Championship. Many of the same names who’ve done well in that event have had success here, including Ancer and last week’s winner, Kevin Na.

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Golfweek:

Na closes Sony Open with clutch birdie for 5th PGA Tour titleLynch: Justin Thomas learned something this week. Everyone else? Not so much.

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American Sports Betting Odds

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Use the tool below to convert odds between American, decimal, fractional and percentage formats.

Betting Odds Explained

American Odds – American Odds are the default odds format at most US friendly betting sites as well as Nevada sports books. Here odds are expressed as either a negative or a positive number. When positive the odds represent how much a player will profit on a successful $100.00 wager. So for example if the odds are +180 a successful $100 bet will return $280 (the $100 stake + $180.00 win). When the odds are negative they represent how much a bettor must stake to win $100. Therefore $150 staked at -150 returns $250.00 (the $150 stake + $100 win).

Decimal Odds – Decimal Odds, also referred to as European Odds, are used in most European countries and are the default option of many Asian bookies as well. This is the easiest odds format to understand as the odds represent how much a 1 unit wager returns. For example a €1 wager at odds 1.91 returns €1.91. This return includes both your stake plus profit; to calculate how much your return will be simply multiple your stake by the given odds.

Fractional Odds – Fractional Odds are used in the UK and Ireland. Here the first number is the amount to be won, and the second number is the stake. So for examples 4/1 is stake 1 to win 4, and 10/11 is stake 11 to win 10. To calculate how much a winning bet will profit, convert the fraction to a decimal and multiply it by the stake. For example 3/2=1.5, so, if wagering at 3/2 a successful bet will return 1.5 times your stake in winnings and will also return your stake.

Implied Probability – Implied Probability is how often a bet must win to average break even. This is calculated as risk/return, so for example +200 in American format (3.00 European) is risk $100 to win $200 so a winning wager returns $300 ($100 stake + $200 win). Therefore the implied probability of +200 is $100/$300= 0.3333, which is 33.33%. For this reason you should only wager at +200 if you think the probability of winning is greater than 33.33%.

On the topic of odds, refer to our No-Vig Calculator for a better understanding of how betting odds work.